Saturday, March 31, 2012

Heavy Winds In Baltimore

   The Orioles' offense was roughly average last year. It was not the main reason they only won 69 games, but it certainly was not a factor in helping them win more. In 2012 the Orioles have subtracted players such as Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee, and added Wilson Betemit and  Chris Davis. Guerrero and Lee proved to be at the end of their respective careers. Betemit and Davis seem to provide around the same level of play as both the veterans, but at a much lesser price. However, there is one thing that both these new full-time Orioles bring. They are extreme K machines. Betemit had a 29.2 K% last season, while Davis had a 30.0 K%. So it seems that while the Orioles might have gotten a little more versatile with their roster, they also are prepared for extreme winds at Camden Yards in 2012.

The Orioles ranked 17th in K% in 2011 with an 18.2% rate. That equates to 1120 K's.

In 2011 Wilson Betemit had 105 K's in 359 PA. If averaged to 500 PA, it equates to 145 K's.
In 2011 Chris Davis had 63 K's in 210 PA. If averaged to 500 PA, it equates to 150 K's.

Vlad Guerrero had 56 K's in 590 PA.
Derrek Lee had 83 K's in 364 PA.

So for fun, let's do a little addition and subtraction.

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   1276 K's would have ranked 5th in 2011. That's obviously not an exact projection, since there are a ton of other players that will trickle onto the roster as well. Also that does not add in progression and regression from the other current starters. There are also a ton of other factors that apply when looking at how productive an offense is, but being near the bottom in any negative statistic like this is probably not a good thing. Add that along with the fact that the Orioles had one of the worst BB% in 2011, and it's not exactly a pleasant picture. If the Orioles do intend to give Betemit and Davis 500 PA, then heavy winds should be expected in the Baltimore Area. Also, I would actually go over on 150 K's for Davis if he gets 500 PA.

   In conclusion, I doubt that the number of K's will truly affect the outcome of the offense, but it will surely make watching the games a little more frustrating.

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